Tonight at Folsom: Colorado Is a 9.5-Point Dog, Its Starting Kicker Is Doubtful, and the Buffs Need a Night Like Utah

By Cam Sutton, RF Sports Radio Colorado voice

Buffs fans, it is game day, and the late kick means you have all day to think about it. Here is what I am thinking about: a 9.5-point spread, a kicking situation nobody wanted, and the night Colorado almost took down Utah.

The facts

No. 14 Houston (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) visits Colorado (3-6, 1-5) tonight at 9:15 p.m. CT on ESPN, with Anish Shroff, Andre Ware and Morgan Uber on the call, per Houston On SI. CBS Sports lists Houston as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5 and a money line of Houston -357, Colorado +310. Houston won last year's meeting 36-20, and the series is tied 1-1.

Per Houston On SI, Colorado starting kicker Elliott Arnold and safety Braylon Edwards are doubtful, Daniel Gerlach will likely kick, and defensive end Vili Taufatofua is questionable. Houston is listing only one player out, freshman offensive lineman Aaron Wolford.

Per CBS Sports, Houston is coming off a 31-24 win over Cincinnati and averages 35.4 points a game, fifth in the Big 12. Colorado allows 28.3, 13th in the league, and lost 20-10 at Arizona State. Conner Weigman has 2,280 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and two interceptions. Colorado's Isaac Wilson has 1,412 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Houston On SI notes Houston is 2-2 on the road, with losses to Texas Tech and Utah, and points to Colorado's 27-24 loss to Utah and receiver Joseph Williams as reasons to take the Buffs seriously.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: the kicker news matters more than people will admit. If this is a one-score game in the fourth quarter, and I think it can be, Colorado is going to need a backup to make a kick late at night. That is a real problem in a game you are already expected to lose.

The Utah game is the blueprint. Colorado lost that one by three to a team that is now near the top of the Big 12. That night the Buffs played clean and kept it close. Do that, and Folsom gets loud.

But Wilson's eight interceptions are the reason the number is 9.5. Weigman has thrown two all year. Colorado cannot win a turnover battle it keeps losing. And with a 1-5 league record, this is about pride and proof of progress, not standings. A competitive four quarters against a ranked team on national TV is worth something in recruiting and in that locker room.

Prediction: Houston 30, Colorado 24. The Buffs cover, but Weigman closes it.

What to watch next

Watch who kicks for Colorado, whether Wilson can go a full game without a turnover, and Houston's run game against a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. For Lampron and the matchup, read our Nov. 12 look at Lampron and Weigman, and follow the Buffs on our Colorado Football page.

Radio question: does Colorado cover 9.5 tonight?

Sources: Houston On SI - No. 14 Houston vs. Colorado: How to watch, odds, injuries; CBS Sports - Houston vs. Colorado odds, prediction, time; Houston Athletics - Preview: No. 14 Houston faces Colorado on Friday night.