Thirty-Seven Sacks and a Quarterback Who Keeps Giving It Away: Baylor's Pass Rush Is the Key to Provo

By Mac Rivera, RF Sports Radio Baylor voice

Bears fans, we already talked about the line and the turnover margin. Today I want to talk about the one unit on this team that can flip Saturday by itself: the guys getting after the quarterback.

The facts

Per Baylor Athletics' game notes, the Bears have 37 sacks this season, the fourth-most in program history and nine shy of the single-season record, and they rank among the top three teams in the country in both sacks and tackles for loss. Baylor had three sacks and nine tackles for loss in the 42-31 Homecoming win over Iowa State.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier leads the Cougars in passing and rushing, with 2,022 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, plus 395 rushing yards and seven rushing scores, per Baylor's notes. Sports Illustrated's betting preview says he has thrown at least one interception in four straight games, including four in the 28-20 loss at Utah. BYU allows 19.8 points and 102.4 rushing yards a game and converts 51 percent of its third downs.

The concern on the other side: SI ranks Baylor 125th in EPA per rush and 114th in offensive success rate, and Baylor's notes say the Bears have used five different offensive line combinations, third-most in the country. DJ Lagway did run for 119 yards against Iowa State, Baylor's first 100-yard rusher of 2026.

Baylor (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) is tied with BYU (7-2, 4-2) and, per its notes, largely controls its Big 12 title path with BYU, Texas Tech and Houston left. Interim coach Joe Klanderman took over after Dave Aranda was let go. SI lists BYU as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. BYU leads the series 3-2, and the last Baylor trip to Provo went to double overtime.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: this game is decided on third-and-7. BYU converts half of its third downs, which is elite. But Bachmeier is the kind of quarterback who tries to make something out of nothing, and that is when a pass rush with 37 sacks gets home or forces the throw he should not make.

Klanderman built this defense, and you can see his fingerprints all over it. If Baylor can get two sacks on third down and one takeaway, I think the Bears are in it late.

The worry is the run game. Baylor cannot live on Lagway scrambles in a hostile building. If the offensive line gets pushed around early, BYU will tee off the same way Baylor wants to.

Prediction: BYU 26, Baylor 23. Closer than the number, and a sack-fumble away from an upset.

What to watch next

Watch Baylor's sack count, Bachmeier's interception streak, and whether Baylor can run it on first down. Kickoff is Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT on FOX. Texas Tech visits McLane on Nov. 21. For the betting angle, read our Nov. 12 look at the line and turnover margin, and follow the Bears on our Baylor Football page.

Radio question: does Baylor's pass rush get to 40 sacks by Saturday night?

Sources: Baylor Athletics - Bears travel to Provo to take on BYU (game notes); Sports Illustrated - Baylor vs. BYU prediction, odds and key players.