Klanderman's First Home Game: Baylor Hosts Iowa State at 11 CT in the 100th Homecoming as a 9.5-Point Favorite

By Mac Rivera, RF Sports Radio Baylor voice

Baylor Nation, the 100th Homecoming game kicks off at 11 a.m. CT at McLane Stadium, and it is also the first home game for interim head coach Joe Klanderman. One week after a 41-9 beatdown at UCF, the Bears get Iowa State on FS1 with a chance to prove Orlando was not a one-night mood swing.

The facts

Per Baylor Athletics, the Bears are 5-3 and fresh off that 41-9 win at UCF, Klanderman's debut after the university relieved seven-year head coach Dave Aranda following consecutive losses to TCU and Kansas. Klanderman, who also serves as defensive coordinator, has overseen a rush-defense turnaround from No. 122 nationally in 2025 to No. 17 through eight games. Baylor had seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss at UCF and ranks second nationally in sacks entering Saturday. DJ Lagway threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns in Orlando, and Gavin Freeman had five catches for 114 yards, including a 77-yard score.

Iowa State is 4-4 in its first season under Jimmy Rogers and is coming off a 51-49 win at Oklahoma State. Per Baylor's game notes, the Cyclones allow 27.3 points, 390.5 yards and 231.3 passing yards per game. Aiden Flora leads their rushing attack with 937 yards and eight touchdowns, and quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,416 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. Baylor leads the all-time series 12-11, but Iowa State won the last two meetings, including 30-18 in Waco in 2023 and 43-21 in Ames in 2024.

SI's Bennett Parker lists Baylor as a 9.5-point favorite and notes Freeman has topped 100 yards in three of his last four games. The Bears are 52-43-4 all-time on Homecoming and have won six of their last seven. Next week, Baylor travels to No. 8 BYU.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: the most important matchup today is Baylor's run defense against Aiden Flora. Iowa State wants to lean on a back averaging over 117 yards a game. Klanderman's front just held UCF to 66 rushing yards. If the Bears win that fight early, Raynor is in obvious passing downs against the nation's No. 2 sack defense, and that is a bad afternoon for the Cyclones.

On offense, Lagway needs a home performance. His best work has come on the road, and the last home game was a loss to TCU where the offense could not find the end zone. Feed Freeman between the numbers and let his yards after catch do the work against a defense giving up 390 yards a game.

Opinion prediction: Baylor covers. The defense is real, the interim staff has the locker room's attention, and Homecoming crowds reward teams that play angry. But do not get sloppy with BYU on deck. Take care of this one first.

What to watch next

Watch Baylor's first-quarter run defense, Freeman's target share, and Lagway's comfort at home, then next week's trip to Provo. For Friday's Homecoming preview, read our Nov. 6 Homecoming preview, and follow the Bears on our Baylor Football page.

Radio question: does a Homecoming win over Iowa State make Joe Klanderman a serious candidate for the full-time Baylor job?

Sources: Baylor Athletics - Baylor hosts Iowa State in nation's longest running Homecoming; SI All Bears - 3 predictions for Baylor vs. Iowa State; Iowa State Athletics - Primer: Iowa State at Baylor; On3 Cyclone Report - The ultimate preview: Iowa State at Baylor.