The Ace With the Foul-Ball Problem: Misiorowski's Fastball Is Missing Fewer Bats, and the Rays Still Won't Say Who Starts Game 1

By Hank Dalton, RF Sports Radio MLB Playoffs voice

Baseball fans, one day until the World Series, and the two most interesting questions are about pitchers. Can Milwaukee's ace get deep into a game again? And who on earth is starting for Tampa Bay?

The facts

Jacob Misiorowski starts Game 1 for the Brewers on Friday at American Family Field. CBS Sports' Mike Axisa laid out his season: he led baseball in ERA (1.80) and strikeouts (252) and is the National League Cy Young favorite. But in two postseason starts he has not finished five innings, throwing 88 pitches in four innings in Game 1 of the NLDS and 94 in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 of the NLCS.

The velocity is not the problem. His fastball has averaged 101.0 mph in the postseason, up from 100.6. But hitters are fouling it off. Per CBS, his swing-and-miss rate on the fastball has dropped from 40.2% in the regular season to 16.1% in the playoffs, while the foul rate jumped from 38.9% to 67.9%. Induced vertical break, the "life" on the pitch, dipped from 14.7 inches to 13.4. Friday will be his first start in 11 days, and the Brewers have played only eight games in 25 days. Logan Henderson appears likely for Game 2.

Tampa Bay, as of Thursday morning, still had not revealed its plan, per MLB Trade Rumors. Drew Rasmussen lines up on normal rest, but The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal floated a scenario with Nick Martinez in Game 1, Rasmussen in Game 2 and Freddy Peralta in Game 3, and reported Rays officials were "deliberating over how to proceed." MLBTR also notes the Rays' rotation is entirely right-handed, which should keep Christian Yelich in Milwaukee's lineup after he sat against lefties in the NLCS. Game 1 is Friday at 7 p.m. Central on FOX.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: the foul-ball numbers are the most important stat of this World Series. When a 101-mph fastball gets fouled off two-thirds of the time, at-bats get long, pitch counts climb, and your ace is done in the fifth. That is how a bullpen gets exposed in a seven-game series.

The rest might help. Eleven days is plenty of time to fix a mechanical issue, if that is what it is. It might also mean rust. Either way, Milwaukee needs six innings from him Friday, not four.

As for the Rays, I love the gamesmanship, but I lean toward Rasmussen. He has been their best arm all October. Saving him for Game 2 gives him extra rest, but Game 1 sets the tone.

My call: I said Rays 4-3 in Game 1 yesterday, and I am keeping it. Brewers in six for the series. That is a prediction, not a report. If Misiorowski gets swings and misses on the heater early, flip my Game 1 pick.

What to watch next

Watch Tampa Bay's announcement, Misiorowski's pitch count through three innings, and where Junior Caminero hits. First pitch is Friday at 7 p.m. Central on FOX. For the Game 1 starter news, read Hank's Oct. 21 column on Misiorowski getting the ball, and follow the MLB Playoffs page through the final out.

Radio question: is Misiorowski's foul-ball problem rust you can fix in 11 days, or a warning sign for Milwaukee?

Sources: CBS Sports — Jacob Misiorowski gets Game 1 start for Brewers; MLB Trade Rumors — The Opener: Rays G1 starter, Caminero, Yelich; MLB.com — Rays-Brewers World Series Game 1: date, time and lineups.