SMU Holds at No. 24, but the Numbers That Will Decide Saturday Against Virginia Are Turnovers and Penalties

By Brooke Calloway, RF Sports Radio SMU voice

Pony Up. The bye week didn't cost SMU its spot in the poll, but it didn't win the Mustangs any new fans either.

The facts

SMU stayed at No. 24 in Sunday's AP Top 25 at 4-1, per the AP poll published by the Chicago Sun-Times. The College Poll Archive shows SMU's point total slipped from 167 to 142 and lists the Mustangs at No. 22 in the coaches poll. The ranking path tells the story. SMU opened at No. 19, climbed to No. 16 after beating UC Davis 56-10, dropped to No. 22 after a 41-31 loss at Louisville, and has been No. 24 for two straight weeks. Only three ACC teams are ranked: No. 3 Miami, No. 21 Wake Forest and SMU.

The AP's preview, published by the Las Vegas Sun, says SMU opened as a 7.5-point favorite over Virginia (4-2). The offense numbers look like a top-25 team. SMU averages 484.2 yards a game, 12th in FBS, and 346.0 passing yards, third in the country. Kevin Jennings has 1,613 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 75%. The defense has a strength, too. Opponents convert only 25.7% of third downs, fifth-best nationally.

Then come the numbers that should worry you. SMU is 116th in FBS with a minus-4 turnover margin. Virginia is 11th at plus-6. SMU is 123rd in penalty yards at 73.8 a game, and Virginia is 48th at 51.7. The run game ranks 94th at 138.2 yards a game. Virginia quarterback Beau Pribula has 13 touchdown passes and one interception. The Mustangs are also 1-3-1 against the spread.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: SMU doesn't lose this game on talent. If it loses, it's because it gave the game away. Virginia's offense is ordinary. The Cavaliers are 111th in third-down conversions at 33.3%, and SMU's third-down defense is elite. But a team that's plus-6 in turnovers and has a quarterback with one pick doesn't hand you short fields. SMU can't hand them any either. Two giveaways and 80 penalty yards turn a 7.5-point favorite into a coin flip. The Mustangs scored 56 on UC Davis and put up 34 on Missouri State, but against power-conference teams they've been tighter. They need to look like the team that ranks third in passing, not 123rd in penalties.

My call: SMU 31, Virginia 20. I think the Mustangs cover, but only if they finish even or better in turnovers. That's a prediction, not a guarantee. If SMU loses the turnover battle again, I'd take the points.

What to watch next

Kickoff is Saturday at 11 a.m. Central on The CW at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and SMU hosts Cal on Oct. 24. Watch the first two drives. If Jennings is efficient and the flags stay in pockets, this should be comfortable. For the Virginia film, read our scouting report on Virginia's comeback win over Syracuse, and get ready on the SMU Football page.

Radio question: which number scares you more for SMU, minus-4 in turnovers or 73.8 penalty yards a game?

Sources: Chicago Sun-Times (AP) — Northwestern moves into AP Top 25; Georgia takes over at No. 1; College Poll Archive — SMU 2026 AP rankings; Las Vegas Sun (AP) — Virginia visits No. 24 SMU in ACC matchup.