One Game, One New Champion: Game 7 Tonight at Chase Center Comes Down to Who Owns the Pace

By Danielle "Dee" Ortiz, RF Sports Radio WNBA voice

Hoops fans, it is the last day of October and the WNBA season is still going, which is exactly how this series deserved to end. One game. Winner takes the trophy. And no matter who wins, a franchise lifts it for the very first time.

The facts

Atlanta and Golden State play Game 7 of the WNBA Finals tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern, 7 p.m. Central, at Chase Center in San Francisco, the first Game 7 in Finals history, per ESPN. Versant's press room lists the broadcast on USA Network and CNBC, with streaming on Peacock. The league moved to a best-of-seven Finals last season, when Las Vegas swept Phoenix.

The Dream forced this game with an 80-69 win in Game 6 on Thursday. Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard combined for 44 points, per CBS Sports, and Gray scored 23 while playing through a finger and hand injury from the semifinals, per ESPN. Angel Reese had 15 points on 5-of-18 shooting with six assists. Atlanta led by 25 in the first half before Golden State cut it to nine late.

ESPN's preview found a clean dividing line: when the Dream have scored under 70 in this series, they have lost. The Valkyries held Atlanta to 64, 62 and 55 in their three wins, per Action Network, and allowed a league-low 75.1 points per game in the regular season. Both teams have won twice at home and once on the road. Since 2005, home teams have won six of the eight championship series that went the distance, per ESPN.

Golden State is the No. 2 seed in only its second season. Atlanta, the No. 4 seed, was swept in its three previous Finals trips. "Yes, we lost. It was a bad game for us. We had a terrible first quarter. We cleaned it up. We found a way. We didn't quit," Valkyries guard Veronica Burton said after Game 6, per CBS Sports.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: this game is decided in the first six minutes. Atlanta wants to run, score early and make it a 75-point game. Golden State wants a rock fight in the 60s. Whoever sets the tempo early is going to be holding a trophy late.

I lean Atlanta, and it is because of Gray. When she is healthy, the Dream have three players who can create a bucket when the play breaks down. Golden State's defense is elite, but elite defense still needs someone to score in the final two minutes, and I trust Atlanta's shot-makers more.

But that home-court history is real, and Chase Center will be rocking. The one matchup I can not stop thinking about is Reese against Kiah Stokes. Stokes only played 20 minutes in Game 6. If Natalie Nakase gets her going early, Reese's night gets a lot harder.

Whatever happens, this series sold the league. Defense, grit, a Game 7 on Halloween. You can not script it better.

What to watch next

Watch first-quarter pace and the turnover battle, which ESPN calls the biggest predictor in this series. For our Game 6 breakdown, read our Oct. 30 Game 6 column, and follow every Finals beat on our WNBA Playoffs page.

Radio question: in a winner-take-all Game 7, do you trust the best defense in the league or the team with more shot-makers?

Sources: ESPN - WNBA Finals' first Game 7 will crown a first-time champion; ESPN - Previewing Valkyries-Dream Game 7; CBS Sports - WNBA Finals Game 7 predictions; Action Network - Dream vs Valkyries Game 7 preview; Versant Press Room - USA Sports WNBA coverage culminates with WNBA Finals.