Eight Goals Allowed, 11 Scored: The Stars Need More Offense for a Home-and-Home With MacKinnon and the Red-Hot Avalanche

By Nolan Frost, RF Sports Radio Stars voice

Victory Green, the Stars have been one of the hardest teams in the league to score on. The problem is they've been almost as hard on themselves.

The facts

Through five games, Dallas is 2-2-1 with 11 goals for and eight against, per NHL.com's standings. The results: a 4-0 loss to St. Louis in the opener, a 2-1 loss in Nashville, a 5-0 win over San Jose, a 4-0 win in Buffalo and Saturday's 2-1 shootout loss in Pittsburgh. The AP notes the Stars are 0-2 against the Central Division. Jake Oettinger has a .963 save percentage and a 0.74 goals-against average in four starts. Mikko Rantanen leads the team with six points (two goals, four assists), Jason Robertson has two goals and four points, and Wyatt Johnston has four assists.

Colorado comes in at 3-2 with 26 goals for and 17 against. Nathan MacKinnon has five goals and 10 points in five games, and Cale Makar has seven points, per NHL.com. The Avalanche's goaltending hasn't kept up. Mackenzie Blackwood is at .867 in four starts. Colorado lost 6-3 to Toronto in its last game, even with two goals from MacKinnon, per the AP.

The AP's injury list for Dallas has Radek Faksa day-to-day (lower body) and Joel Kiviranta, Cameron Hughes, Harrison Scott and Matt Duchene out. TSN reported Duchene was placed on long-term injured reserve to start the season. For Colorado, Logan O'Connor is day-to-day and Georgii Merkulov is out.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: this home-and-home tells us whether Oettinger can keep covering for an offense averaging 2.2 goals a game. He can't do it all season, and he shouldn't have to. You don't beat Colorado by holding MacKinnon down for 120 minutes, because nobody does. You beat the Avs by making Blackwood work. That means Robertson, Rantanen and Roope Hintz shooting early and often, and the power play turning chances into goals instead of near-misses. The Pittsburgh game was the template for what not to do: 24 saves by the other goalie and one goal for Dallas in regulation.

The numbers back that up. Dallas has scored nine goals in its two wins and just two in the other three games combined, and two of its three non-wins came against Central Division teams. Colorado will be the third division opponent in six games, and then the Stars turn around and play the Avalanche again the next night. Points against the Avs count double in the standings race, because every point Dallas takes is one Colorado doesn't get. Seguin's tying goal Saturday, his first since coming back from knee surgery, was a reminder that the depth scoring is coming. It needs to show up this week.

My call: a split. Dallas wins Tuesday at home, 3-2, and Colorado takes Wednesday in Denver. If the Stars get three points out of the two games, call it a win. That's my prediction, not a lock.

What to watch next

Tuesday's game is at 7:30 p.m. Central at American Airlines Center on ESPN. The rematch is Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. Central (6:30 Mountain) in Denver on TNT, and the Stars visit Chicago on Saturday, all per NHL.com's schedule. Watch Faksa's status and whether Glen Gulutzan shuffles the lines to find more scoring. Catch up on our recap of Saturday's shootout loss in Pittsburgh, and follow along on the Dallas Stars page.

Radio question: over these two games, who wins the head-to-head, Oettinger or MacKinnon?

Sources: Las Vegas Sun (AP) — Avalanche play the Stars after MacKinnon's 2-goal showing; NHL.com — Dallas Stars 2026-27 schedule; NHL.com — Dallas Stars stats; NHL.com — Colorado Avalanche stats; TSN — Stars place Duchene on LTIR to start season.