Cal Is Banged Up, Lupoi Won't Name a Quarterback, and SMU Is a Big Favorite: Why the Mustangs Still Can't Take Saturday Lightly

By Brooke Calloway, RF Sports Radio SMU voice

Pony Up. On paper, this week could not be lining up better for SMU. Cal is hurt, unsettled at quarterback and coming off a 41-7 loss. That is exactly why I am nervous. Revenge games are supposed to be easy. They rarely are.

The facts

Cal coach Tosh Lupoi would not say Tuesday who starts at quarterback Saturday, per Sports Illustrated's Cal site. "I'm going to put the individual I think is going to be best for us to go win the game," he said. SI expects Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns in last year's 38-35 upset. Rhett Lashlee is planning for him too: "They're getting their quarterback back, who I think is one of the better quarterbacks in our league and the country," he said. "We saw the talent last year, so that part we do remember."

The first injury report, released Wednesday night, hurts Cal more, per SI. Leading rusher Adam Mohammed and No. 2 back Carter Vargas are out, so Ashten Emory is expected to start. Receiver Ian Strong and three other wideouts are questionable, along with three offensive linemen and defensive tackle Jericho Johnson. For SMU, running back Dramekco Green and defensive end Ira Singleton IV are out, safety Ahmed Moses, who has not played this season, is questionable with eligibility still an issue, and safety Tyren Polley Jr. is done for the year.

The numbers favor the Mustangs. SMU is 10-0 in ACC home games since joining the league and was a 19.5-point favorite as of Tuesday, per SI. It leads the ACC in passing defense at 164.8 yards per game. On Wednesday, Lashlee was named to the Paul "Bear" Bryant Coach of the Year watch list; SMU Athletics notes he is 17-3 in conference play and 43-17 overall. SMU averages 326.0 passing yards per game, fifth nationally. No. 23 SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC) and Cal (3-4, 2-2) kick off Saturday at 11 a.m. Central on The CW.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: the spread is a trap for fans, not for the team. SI pointed out that SMU has not won any game this season by more than 10 points. This is a team that grinds, not one that blows people out. If you expect a 30-point laugher, you will be frustrated by halftime.

Cal's injuries matter most up front. With three offensive linemen questionable, SMU's pass rush should get home, and that is how you rattle a talented quarterback. Make Sagapolutele hold it. Do not let him get comfortable early like he did a year ago.

On the other side, losing Green thins the running back room. Kevin Jennings may have to carry more, and "boring" may need a few big throws.

My call: I said SMU 34, Cal 17 on Wednesday, and I am sticking with it. That is a prediction, not a report.

What to watch next

Watch who takes the first snap for Cal, whether Moses is cleared, and SMU's sack total. Kickoff is Saturday at 11 a.m. Central on The CW. For the revenge-week setup, read our Oct. 21 SMU revenge-week column, and follow the SMU Football page.

Radio question: does SMU finally win a game by more than 10 points this season, or does Cal keep it close again?

Sources: Sports Illustrated (Cal) — Tosh Lupoi mum on Cal's starting quarterback against SMU; Sports Illustrated (Cal) — Cal-SMU injury report; SMU Athletics — Lashlee added to Paul "Bear" Bryant Coach of the Year watch list.