Blackout Eve in Waco: 4-1 Baylor Hosts Tumbling TCU With the Revivalry Under the Lights and the Defense Still Flying

By Mac Rivera, RF Sports Radio Baylor voice

Bears fans, the blackout is almost here. McLane goes dark, the Revivalry gets loud, and a 4-1 Baylor team that has been living on defense gets a TCU club still searching for its Big 12 footing.

The facts

Baylor (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) hosts TCU (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 6 p.m. Central on FS1 at McLane Stadium in the Blackout on the Brazos / Revivalry, per BaylorBears.com. Baylor is on a four-game winning streak. TCU Athletics previewed the trip to Waco on Oct. 15 as the latest rendition of the most-played rivalry in Texas.

Team materials and recent coverage have framed Baylor's defense as the identity piece — including the streak of holding opponents to 20 or fewer points that carried through the early slate — while DJ Lagway and Gavin Freeman headline the offensive threats. SI's by-the-numbers preview put TCU's offense on notice against Power Four competition, with scoring issues and protection for quarterback Jaden Craig as central themes.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: rivalries do not care about your last three box scores, but trends do show up in November. Baylor has earned the right to be favored at home in black. TCU has earned the right to be doubted until it sustains drives. The danger for the Bears is emotional football — big early plays, then a lull that lets Craig settle in. Waco will be loud; the question is whether the Bears stay boring enough to win.

Blackout nights can get sloppy. I want Baylor's defensive front to set the same tone it has all month: early pressure, short fields denied, and no cheap explosives. Offensively, Lagway does not need a highlight reel. He needs clean decisions and a red-zone touchdown rate that matches the crowd noise. If TCU scores first, the blackout gets nervous. If Baylor pins the Frogs behind the sticks early, this looks like a statement home win that travels into the second half of Big 12 play.

My call: Baylor 31, TCU 17. The defense keeps the points-allowed streak alive, and the Bears stay perfect in Big 12 play. That is a prediction, not a report. If Craig hits two explosives early, the Revivalry turns into a one-score scrap in the fourth.

What to watch next

Kickoff is Saturday at 6 p.m. Central on FS1. Watch the points-allowed streak, Baylor's red-zone touchdown rate, and Craig's turnover count. For yesterday's five-straight-held-to-20 column, read yesterday's Baylor post on five straight foes held to 20 or fewer, and follow the Baylor Football page.

Radio question: is this Baylor defense the real Big 12 story, and does a blackout win over TCU make the Bears contenders in your book?

Sources: BaylorBears.com — Red-hot FB hosts TCU in Blackout on the Brazos; BaylorBears.com — Baylor to host TCU at 6 p.m. on FS1; TCU Athletics — TCU heads to Waco for the Revivalry; SI — TCU vs Baylor by the numbers.