Baylor Is a 6.5-Point Favorite Over TCU, and Even SI's Baylor Site Is Picking the Upset. Here's Why the Bears Should Cover

By Mac Rivera, RF Sports Radio Baylor voice

Sic 'em. Baylor is 4-1, has won four straight and is favored at home in the Revivalry. So why does everybody keep talking about an upset?

The facts

SI's Baylor site lists the Bears as 6.5-point favorites over TCU, with an over/under of 52.5 and a money line of Baylor -220, TCU +180. Baylor averages 34.8 points a game and has allowed 71 points in five games, 14.2 a game. TCU averages 25.4 and allows just 13.4, 15th-best in FBS. Then the writer, after laying out those numbers, picks TCU to win 24-20. The reasons: Dave Aranda is 2-4 against TCU, the Frogs are 2-3 and desperate, and the Bears could be overconfident after a 55-19 rout at Arizona State. The piece also notes Baylor lost J. Redding and D. Tezino to season-ending injuries.

Baylor's own game notes fill in the picture. The Bears have held all five opponents to 20 points or fewer, the longest such streak to open a season since 1966. They rank No. 4 nationally in team sacks, No. 6 in tackles for loss, No. 8 in red-zone defense and No. 12 in scoring defense, and ESPN's SP+ has them 27th overall with the ninth-best special teams. Baylor is receiving votes in the coaches poll, but it isn't among the teams receiving votes in Sunday's AP poll. TCU starts former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig, who has 1,400 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, and Jeremy Payne leads the run game with 432 yards. The Frogs have lost to North Carolina 15-10 in Dublin, at UCF 21-13 and to BYU at home. TCU won last year's meeting 42-36 in Fort Worth and leads the series 60-54-7.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: respect the TCU defense, but don't buy the upset. TCU's defense is legit, and that's why this probably isn't a 40-point game. But TCU hasn't scored more than 13 points in any of its three losses, and now it faces a pass rush that ranks fourth in the country in sacks with a quarterback who has thrown four picks. Baylor's edge is the stuff that doesn't show up in a point spread: special teams, a home blackout crowd and an extra week to get healthy. Aranda's record against TCU is a fair knock, but this is the best defense he's had in years.

My call: Baylor 27, TCU 17. The Bears cover, the defense gets at least two sacks and a takeaway, and the upset talk disappears by halftime. That's a prediction, so hold me to it next Sunday.

What to watch next

Kickoff is Saturday at 6 p.m. Central on FS1 at McLane Stadium, and Baylor wants fans in black. Watch Baylor's offensive line against a TCU front that held opponents to 99.6 rushing yards a game. For the film breakdown, read our TCU film-study preview, and get ready on the Baylor Football page.

Radio question: are you laying the 6.5 with Baylor, or taking the Frogs and the points?

Sources: SI (Baylor) — What the spread says about Baylor's chances against TCU; BaylorBears.com — Red-hot Baylor hosts TCU in Blackout on the Brazos; Chicago Sun-Times (AP) — AP Top 25 after Week 7.