Ball Security or Bust: Golden State's Season Comes Down to Turnovers and the Paint in Today's Game 4 in Atlanta

By Danielle "Dee" Ortiz, RF Sports Radio WNBA Playoffs voice

WNBA fans, we are a few hours from the most important game of Golden State's season. Win and it is 2-2 heading home. Lose and the Valkyries board a plane down 3-1, and ESPN notes no team in WNBA history has trailed a Finals by multiple games and come back to win.

The facts

Game 4 tips today, Saturday, at noon Central at State Farm Arena on NBC and Peacock, per the Valkyries' preview. Atlanta leads the best-of-seven series 2-1 after winning Games 2 and 3. Game 5 is Monday at 7 p.m. Central at Chase Center on USA and Peacock.

The turnover numbers are ugly. Golden State turned it over 19 times in Game 2, and the Valkyries' own preview says Game 3 was 19 again, matching the most in franchise playoff history (ESPN's count for Game 3 was 17). In Game 3, the Dream scored 22 points off turnovers to the Valkyries' seven and outscored them 44-20 in the paint in a 97-71 win. Angel Reese had a game-high 21 points and 12 rebounds. Gabby Williams led Golden State with 15, and Cecilia Zandalasini made her first four threes. The Valkyries' bench scored 38.

Sports Illustrated notes Golden State has not shot better than 35 percent from the field in any game of the series: 32.1 percent in Game 1, 34.4 in Game 2 and 34.8 in Game 3. Williams is 8 for 33 over the last two games. Reese has 12, 16 and 12 rebounds in the three games. SI lists Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite and Brionna Jones as out for the Dream; Golden State reported no injuries.

RF Sports Radio's take (opinion)

My take: forget the shooting for a minute. Golden State won Game 1 at 32 percent. It can win ugly. What it cannot do is keep handing Atlanta 17 to 19 extra chances. Every live-ball turnover turns into a Reese run-out or an open corner three, and that is how a 10-point game becomes 26.

The bench is the Valkyries' best hope. Only Williams among the starters has scored in double figures in all three games, and the reserves keep producing. If I am Natalie Nakase, I ride the group that is playing well and live with it, even if that means fewer minutes for a struggling starter.

For Atlanta, the job is simple: keep pounding the paint. A 44-20 edge inside is not luck. It is a size problem Golden State has not solved.

My call: Dream 81, Valkyries 73, and Atlanta goes up 3-1. That is a prediction, not a report. If Golden State keeps it under 12 turnovers, I will happily be wrong.

What to watch next

Tip is noon Central. Watch first-half turnovers, Reese on the glass and Williams' first few shots. For the scoring trend, read our Oct. 23 WNBA column on Atlanta's rising point totals, and follow the WNBA Playoffs page through the final.

Radio question: is this series about Golden State's turnovers or Angel Reese simply being the best player on the floor?

Sources: Golden State Valkyries via OurSports Central - WNBA Finals Game 4 Preview: Valkyries at Dream; Sports Illustrated - Valkyries vs. Dream prediction and odds, Finals Game 4; ESPN - WNBA Finals Game 4 preview.