NFL Fantasy Football: Fantasy Sleeper Mike Williams

by Arif Hasan

Mike Williams. Photo credit BucsNation

Fantasy owners tend not to win or lose because they made the right choice in the first or second round. It’s usually the mid- to late-rounds (along with smart strategic decisions) that distinguish a playoff contender from a toilet bowl honoree, and that’s where a fantasy favorite term gets thrown around—the sleeper.

Sleepers are generally those that are projected to be drafted late (say, the 50th wide receiver or the 12th quarterback) who are expected to outperform their projection significantly (to become around the 25th best receiver or 8th best quarterback).

Predicting sleepers can be difficult but not altogether unfruitful. FFToolbox’s list of 2012 sleepers for wide receivers was surprisingly productive. Below is a table of the sleepers, their projected receiver ranking by FFToolbox, their collective Average Draft Position (ranked by draft performance against other receivers) and their final rank in standard scoring leagues.

Receiver	Proj. WR Rank	ADP WR Rank	Final WR Rank	Diff from Proj
Randall Cobb	53	47	18	35
Malcom Floyd	34	38	36	-2
Leonard Hankerson	78	67	63	15
James Jones	57	61	16	41
Brandon LaFell	36	53	48	-12
Greg Little	55	42	52	3
Denarius Moore	30	34	33	-3
Santana Moss	54	56	41	13
Torrey Smith	31	28	23	8
Kendall Wright	44	48	55	-11
Titus Young	50	35	71	-21

That’s a fairly impressive hit rate, with huge hits on James Jones and Randall Cobb (who share a productive quarterback, to be fair). Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss were decent hits and aside from Titus Young (who had extenuating circumstances), there were few big misses. The average difference with Titus Young was six ranks. Without him, it was nine ranks.

But, for the most part, drafting most of these players didn’t produce starting value (except for Torrey Smith, who was projected as a flex starter regardless). 3 out of 11 isn’t great, and not the type of hit value that defines successful fantasy players.

So why not pick a sleeper with a history of production and young enough to continue to grow?

Mike Williams of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continues to be ignored by fantasy mavens and the general public, despite putting up the 17th-most points in standard leagues last year (that’s more than Randall Cobb). 

On average, he was the 129th player drafted in non-IDP leagues and was the 46th receiver to go—a soft WR4 or backup flex option in a thin week.

He ended as a decent WR2 with somewhat consistent production, producing  between 3 and 15 points a game, twice going above fifteen.

In fact, for a starting fantasy receiver, he’s been remarkably consistent. Standard deviation is a statistical measure that looks at the average difference from the typical production—the higher the number, the less consistent the receiver.

Every receiver that ranked above him, except for one, in standard scoring leagues had a higher standard deviation and was therefore more inconsistent from week to week. Wes Welker had a standard deviation of 5.31, while Williams had a standard deviation of 5.33.

Generally, the receivers above him averaged a standard deviation of 7.15. This is a pretty good test not just of fantasy usefulness and repeatability, but also of the ability to repeat numbers from year to year. Players with lower standard deviations are less likely to bust the next year than ones with inconsistent production (like Brian Hartline or Michael Crabtree).

Receivers who produce extraordinary numbers, like Calvin Johnson, might have higher standard deviations but not be all that inconsistent. Dividing standard deviation by their average point value then produces an adjusted consistency score, where higher numbers are worse—indicating that a player is very fluky for how much they produce.

When corrected, Calvin Johnson is about as consistent as they come, but warning flags pop up for Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Roddy White (who produced a final stretch of games worth 2 points, 17.7 points, 1.6 points, 27.3 points and 4.2 points), Victor Cruz, and some others. Not so for the criminally underrated Williams.

Despite the fact that his 2011 season was not stellar (ranking 50th among receivers), the 3-year rule (he was drafted in 2010) and a fantastic 2010 rookie season (ranking 11th among receivers) should give owners faith that the sophomore season was the fluke and that his 2013 production is a reliable indicator of what he will do. He has Vincent Jackson to continue to draw coverage away from him and a coach willing to throw the ball more often than league average (on over 56 percent of attempts). Williams could shine.

In MyFantasyLeague mock drafts, Mike Williams is the 104th player to go, and the 41st receiver. In Fantasy Pros’ composite rankings, he’s the 94th player to go and the 36th receiver. FFtoolbox ranks him 101st overall and the 39th receiver, while FootballGuys ranks him 95th overall and agrees that he is the 39th receiver.

In 10-person leagues, that means he’ll typically go at the bottom of the 9th round or the beginning of the 10th. Grab him in the 8th round in those leagues (or in the 7th round of 12-person leagues) and you’ll find you’ve invested a WR4 draft pick to grab a receiver who can produce low WR2 numbers from week to week better than most top-rated receivers can.

Remember, you’re playing to score the most points every week, not score the most points at the end of the season.