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| Kam Chancellor, part of a shrinking NFL Middle Class. Photo credit NFL |
Agents, Executives & Veterans are quietly discussing the shrinking middle class in the NFL. Elite players still land lucrative deals, but $ 3-4 million per year players are endangered species.
Accumulating Talent comes from two markets- The Draft (Wholesale) & Free Agency (Retail).
General Managers have stopped looking at what position money is spent, focusing on accumulating elite players. The draft is used to supplement, where under the rookie wage scale, talent is landed on 4 year affordable contracts. At the drafts conclusion, GMs assert each selection was the highest ranked player on their board. In reality, managing a salary cap requires a deviation from this approach, albeit marginally.
San Francisco: Reverting to the concept of accumulating high impact players, inside linebackers Navarro Bowman & Patrick Willis constitute the two largest contracts. 49ers COO Paraag Marathe, a former Bain Capital employee & Stanford MBA, employs a deeply analytical approach to cap management. Seeking to find value, he manages player personnel the way a Wealth Management professional would a portfolio. In a salary cap league, teams cannot retain all impact players. When a playmaker is lost via Free Agency, the draft process is critical to replenishing the system.
Safety Dashon Goldson signed a 5 Year 41.25 Million (18 M Guaranteed) deal with Tampa Bay, becoming the highest paid safety in the league. Given commitments to the linebackers, Goldson's Agent Ben Dogra of CAA Sports recognized the 49ers wouldn't match. Bear in mind, his firm brokered the Willis deal. Not assured Goldson's replacement was on the roster, Veteran Craig Dahl was signed, but GM Trent Baalke set his eyes on the draft. Entering with 13 selections and devoid roster space to accommodate this influx, the 49ers became a preferred trade partner for numerous teams looking to accumulate ammunition.
Determining LSU Safety Eric Reid was the ideal replacement, the team monitored league-wide interest through the pre-draft process. Sharing the same representation as Dashon Goldson, open communication between the 49ers & CAA Football undoubtedly occurred. Gauging the Giants would select Reid, the 49ers struck a deal with Dallas, moving ahead of New York.
San Francisco Receives Pick 18 (900)
Dallas Receives Picks 31 & 74 (820).
Dallas insisting on San Francisco's 2nd Rounder Pick 61 would be a deal breaker. While value would've matched more accordingly, both teams coveted Tight Ends in Round 2. This TE Class had a precipitous drop in talent after the top 5. Looking for the new-age big body Tight Ends that stretch the seam, San Francisco traded ahead of division rival Seattle to land Rice's Vance McDonald.
Reverting to the concept of replenishing, loosing complementary TE Delanie Walker in Free Agency to the Titans left a void. Walker signed a 4 Year 17.5 Million (5.6 M Guaranteed) deal. Unwilling to match, the 49ers shifted focus to the amateur scouting process to find a replacement.
To Summarize:
Free Agency Losses:
TE Delanie Walker -29- 4 Years 17.5 Million (5.6 M Guaranteed)
S Dashon Goldson -28- 5 Years 41.25 Million (18 M Guaranteed)
Free Agency & Draft Acquisition*:
TE Vance McDonald -22- 4 Years 3.588 Million (1.603 M Guaranteed)
S Craig Dahl -28- 3 Years 5.25 Million (700 K Guaranteed)
S Eric Reid -21- 4 Years 8.6 Million (Fully Guaranteed w/ 5th Year Option)
Making decisions at the margin, the 49ers lost proven veteran players, replacing them with younger high upside ones at a significant discount. If evaluators missed, losses will be evident. But if they hit on Reid and McDonald, they're getting significantly more value relative to the resources allocated.
Seattle: Head Coach Pete Carroll & GM John Schneider are at a different stage than their division rivals. Having overhauled the roster since 2010, they had more financial resources and thus flexibility. With their 25th Pick, the team acquired playmaker Percy Harvin, extending him for 5 Years 64.245 Million (14.5 M Guaranteed). Significantly more expensive than the 25th overall selection, it's a bold move that could transform the offense. The Hawks also utilized veteran free agency to add proven NFL pass rushers Cliff Avril & Michael Bennett.
With their first pick in Round 2, complementary running back Christine Michael was selected. The next 3 picks featured 2 Defensive Tackles & a Wide Receiver. If DTs Jordan Hill and/or Jesse Williams are competent starters, the team can release Brandon Mebane in 2014 or 2015, saving $ 5 million in the process, or allow him to depart when his contract expires. WR Chris Harper indicates Golden Tate will not be retained long-term when his rookie deal expires after 2013. Not a high impact player, it's a logical decision given commitments to Harvin & Sidney Rice.
More notable than the draft, Safety Kam Chancellor signed a 4 Year $ 28 Million extension this week. After the 2014 season, a decision on one of the premier free safeties Earl Thomas will be necessary. Similar to the 49ers allocation of resources to Willis & Bowman, will the Seahawks deem it prudent to pay Safeties Chancellor & Earl Thomas? At this point, it seems logical and finding a comparable player to Earl Thomas is a difficult task. But next years draft provides an opportunity to do so, at a rookie wage scale price. This is the dynamic of cap management. Lockup high impact players like Kam Chancellor & Navarro Bowman, and bid farewell to marginal players like Golden Tate & Delanie Walker. Herein lies the theme of the article: The shrinking NFL middle class.
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