St. Louis Cardinals: Better than 2013?

St. Louis Cardinals are ready to return to the World
Series again. Photo credit MLB 

by Steve Painter 

Every season is different, that's true in any sport. In the spring, hope blooms eternal in every baseball fans heart, wanting to visualize their favorite team winning the championship in the fall. Diehard fans demand a lot from their team, and the St. Louis Cardinals usually deliver some sort of prize for theirs.

Some teams excel and some flounder, but the Cards have taken success to another level under the leadership of GM John Mozeliak and young coach Mike Matheny. They, along with the expertise of their staffs, have built a dynamic machine in the Midwest.

How do you improve upon greatness? In 2013, they led the National League with 97 wins and went on to win the 19th NL pennant in franchise history. The World Series? Their 4th since 2004. Yes, they lost the series in the 6th game, but, for fans, the good news is: There will be improvement in 2014, both offensively and defensively.

The Cards have improved defensively in the outfield, 2nd base, and 3rd base. They also made a big move at SS, but that's a tradeoff move, Pete Kozma's defense for Jhonny Peralta's offense. Peralta is average on defense, a step below Kozma, but overall, They will benefit from the switch. 2nd base will see improved glove work by Mark Ellis and Kolten Wong and 3rd base will be a vast improvement by Matt Carpenter taking over for the departed David Freese, whom I love, by the way, and I hope he finds success with the Angels. The outfield will see improvement with the addition of CF Peter Bourjos. He's fast, can cover more territory than Jon Jay, and will bring relief to Holliday and Allen Craig.

The pitching rotation relied heavily on Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller, who together provided 98 starts, while a total of 7 others provided for 64 starts. Imagine a full season of Michael Wacha, and a healthy Jaime Garcia, and a more experienced Miller. And that's not to mention Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. This amount of surplus is always good for the team because it provides flexibility to add a sixth man to the rotation during the season at strategic intervals to provide the starting 5 good rest between starts and allowing them to go deeper into the season with what will be for the younger pitchers, a pre-established inning count.

The bullpen will be young again, but there are established roles in place now, roles that weren't in place all year in 2013. The addition of John Axford late last season will continue to benefit and Jason Motte should be able to contribute upon his return from elbow-surgery. The young bullpen clicked last year for Matheny and they will do so again this year, with the ability to perform in high-leverage situations.

The Cards have always loved the bombs hit by their power hitters all throughout their storied history. Last year they ranked 13th in the NL in home runs. They scored 26.1% of their runs via the home runs and that was the lowest rate in the majors. I think they will do better this year. Matt Adams, A healthy Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, and then the wild card kid named Oscar Taveras. Cardinal hitters say that Busch Stadium played "big" last year and that gave them a stat they don't want to repeat: A home run every 46.2 at bats - the lowest in Busch Stadium history.

So, offensively, what about the Kozma-Peralta switch? Last year the SS position produced a sickly .280 onbase percentage and a .303 slugging percentage. Pete Kozma is not as seasoned as Peralta, as Peralta has a career .330 OBP and a .425 slugging percentage. Along with that, over the past 3 seasons, Peralta is ranked 4th among SS's with 11 wins above replacement.

The overall team speed will be an asset this year with the addition of Bourjos and by Wong contributing. Carpenter has decent speed, but isn't a track star. The Cards only stole 45 bases last year with a 67 percent success rate. That's awful. The Cards did rank 2nd in the majors in Base Running Runs, which puts a valuation on base advancement.

And the head coach, Mike Matheny will continue to grow and impress, no reason to think otherwise. Mozeliak hit a home run when he chose Matheny to run the club, no doubt about that.

Winning the NL Central is not going to be easy, and the Cards can't take anything for granted. But it's true that the Cards have had a better offseason than Cincinnati and Pittsburgh by addressing their needs and being more aggressive at resolving those issues. I look for the Cards to be better than last year. It is true that anything can and usually does happen along the way, but don't be surprised by a return performance in the World Series.