Fantasy Football Picks and Sleepers

by Ryan Henry

Fantasy football season is here. I’m here to give you a leg up on your competition. Last year was the year of the quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all put up insane, record-breaking numbers, and if you were fortunate to have one of these three players on your teams, you probably were competing for a championship. This year is going to be more of the same. For these recommendations, I am assuming standard scoring with 4 points per passing touchdown.

The reason why quarterbacks were so dominant was because of a term called comparative advantage. Essentially, if you were able to draft any one of those three quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brees or Brady) or even to a lesser extent Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford, then you were at least 60 points better than everyone else. This year, if you aren’t able to get one of those 5, then you might as well wait. There is a lot of value later in the draft. If you draft later in the first round, after Rodgers, Brady and Brees are off the board, then wait until some of the middle rounds when you can get Eli Manning (ADP 49.7 in Yahoo! Leagues) or Tony Romo (ADP 60).

Rodgers number 3 overall or Romo in the second round? Courtesy nfl.com

Arian Foster is the clear number one pick. While he does have some injury concerns, he is the focal point of an extraordinary offense, and has shown that he known how to tear apart defenses. He deserves a tier of his own. Running back is another position where you can get good value a little later, but be careful about waiting too long. After Darren McFadden (ADP 16.2), Jamaal Charles (ADP 31.7) and DeMarco Murray (ADP 27.1) go off the board, the remaining backs have some huge question marks surrounding them. Can Adrian Peterson (17.8) come back from an ACL tear? How many games will Ryan Matthews (ADP 6.8, but this number is artificially low because a lot of drafts took place before he broke his shoulder) play this season? Can Marshawn Lynch (ADP 23.9) avoid drinking and driving? Questions like these plague the running backs that have been going in the middle of the draft.

Can McFadden stay healthy? Courtesy nfl.com

Trent Richardson (ADP 14.7) is the big question mark at running back. He has a lot of potential. He was a beast at Alabama, and will be the featured back in the burgeoning Cleveland offense. However, he has already had two knee surgeries and he hasn’t played a single down.  If he slips into the third round or late into the second, then grab him; otherwise, I prefer a little less risk than that with my first round draft pick.

Trent Richardson hopes to be a major factor in the Cleveland offense. Courtesy nfl.com

If you want good value, especially if you are in a PPR league, then look no further than Darren Sproles (ADP 53.5). He is benefits the most from switching to this scoring method. ESPN has him as the 21^st best player in PPR formats, while 42^nd in standard scoring.

The real position to watch, though, is tight end. Contrary to every other year, if you have a later pick in the first round, then you should take a good long look at Rob Gronkowski (ADP 16.7) or Jimmy Graham (ADP 16.2). These two tight ends put up wide receiver-esque numbers and can put you 5-10 points ahead of your opponent every week. However, waiting can also give you some good returns. Jared Cook (ADP 132), Coby Fleemer (ADP 130.8) and Jacob Tamme (ADP 110.6) are all players that should be available later that could have breakout seasons. Cook has great hands and in the preseason has looked impressive. Fleemer is reunited with his quarterback from college, Andrew Luck (ADP 117.6), and hopes to continue to keep the mojo going where they were one of the most prolific duo in college football. Tamme benefits from having Peyton Manning (ADP 51) at the helm, who favored his tight end in Indianapolis, Dallas Clark (ADP 133.6).

Gronkowski is a touchdown machine. Courtesy nfl.com

Titus Young (ADP 120.7), Antonio Brown (ADP 62.2), Cedric Benson (ADP 116) and Kevin Smith (ADP 117.7) are my sleepers for this season.  Young will benefit from Matthew Stafford (ADP 17.4) having completed an entire season last year and Calvin Johnson (ADP 5.8) needs to be double teamed every time he is on the field. Young showed growth last year, and I expect him to have a breakout season. Benson is the number one running back in the number one offense. That fact alone should be enough of a reason to give him a long look. The only problem is that we don’t know how many touches he will get. Brown had a good end of season last and was a monster in PPR leagues. Much like Young, Brown should build upon last season. Mike Wallace (ADP 32) was embroiled in a contract holdout throughout much of training camp, and Brown looks to benefit the most from that.

Brown looks to have another successful season. Courtesy nfl.com

While Demaryius Thomas (ADP 41) is the official number one wide receiver in Denver, Eric Decker (ADP 70.2) looks like he has the better rapport with Peyton Manning coming out of training camp. Manning liked to spread the ball around in Indianapolis, and you can expect he will do the same in Denver.