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NBA Lockout in 2017 Will Happen

Will we see another NBA lockout in 2017? 

This past week, both NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and NBAPA director Michele Roberts have began to draw deep lines in the sand with very contrasting views on the business of basketball. We take a look at why a lockout is squarely on the horizon.

by +Rodney Fisher


"Why don't we have the owners play half the games?" - Michele Roberts, NBAPA Executive Director

A question that newly appointed union chief Roberts asked during her interview with ESPN the magazine this week. A question that will be the catalyst of perhaps a bitter discussion about changes to the current collective bargaining agreement.

NBAPA union chief Michele Roberts, first women in
that position for North American sports league.
Michele Roberts is the first female to be appointed union chief for a major sports league. Her background as a tough and accomplished trial attorney made her an interesting choice for the NBAPA given the current circumstances.

Owning a NBA team has become a can't lose proposition. Although attendance has been down in some cities, the valuation for even losing franchises has never been higher. With the sale of the Los Angeles Clippers, a team without an arena or their own market, for $2 billion to a one of the richest men on the planet signified the status symbol and good investment sports in America has become.

The current CBA divides the broadcasting rights between the owners and the players 50/50, a position that the players fought for in the last lockout. The salary cap had it's biggest increase in over a decade this season,  but the limitations of the "max" contract for players have been the calling card for owners to be frugal with the 90% of players that make up the roster surrounding the 10% of superstars in the league. The recently announced nine year, $24 billion deal had low-to-medium salary players exstatic. The average $5 million salary in the NBA could double in 2016, when the deal kicks in, to $10 million. The salary cap could balloon to as much as $100 million.

Commissioner Adam Silver, who works for the 30 owners and negotiated the new rights deal, has already proposed the practice of "cap smoothing". Basically, they want to gradual move the salary cap up over time versus a large increase in two years.

This week, Michele Roberts made it plain and clear that the players will exercise all of their power to make some major changes.

"There would be no money if it were not for the players. Let's call it what it is. There. Would, Be. No. Money. Thirty more owners can come in, and nothing will change. These guys go? The game will change. So let's stop pretending." - Michele Roberts from ESPN the Magazine

In her interview she goes on to say that they will challenge everything from the max contracts, age limits, and even the long 82 game schedule. She went as far to say that to limit a person's income potential is "un-American".

The NBA office and Adam Silver quickly responded:
"We couldn't disagree more with these statements. The NBA's success is based on the collective efforts and investments of all of the team owners, the thousands of employees at our teams and arenas, and our extraordinarily talented players. No single group could accomplish this on its own. Nor is there anything unusual or "un-American" in unionized industry to have a collective system for paying employees; in fact, that's the norm."

"The salary cap system, which splits revenues between team owners and players and has been agreed upon by the NBA and the players association since 1982, has served as a foundation for the growth of the league and has enabled NBA players to become the highest paid professional athletes in the world. We will address all of these topics and others with the players association at the appropriate time."

Adam Silver is no stranger to CBA negotiations.
This is not the first time that the NBAPA and NBA has been so divided going into a potential opt-out year. It is expected to state clear and abstract views in order to reach a middle ground. Silver is not a rookie to these type of negotiations, but Roberts is. Could that work in the players favor or hurt them?

Roberts has never been through a collective bargaining process at any level for a sports league. It is very understandable to find some of the current and past practices of professional leagues archaic and antiquated from normal society. You are dealing with a very primal system when you are dealing with sports. If she truly wants to have the players power to wield she has to first get the full support of all the players first. That will not be easy.

For the majority of NBA players, just like the rest of the world, their income comes from work, not stuff they do outside of work. The LeBrons, Durants, Kobes, and Melos of the basketball world all have endorsement income that dwarfs or equals their playing salaries. They all are in the ultra-exclusive max deal club also. Other players during the last lockout were outspoken that they want and need to work. The challenge for Roberts will be to get them to see the long term benefits of a lockout over the short term financial pain. A lockout would also affect the arena workers, team workers, and others that make a lot less than players to do more.

For Silver, it is hard to say that the owners will not give him their full support. Afterall, their teams are worth more now than last season with the values going up regardless of Silver's claim that team are losing yearly revenue. He acted swiftly to remove Donald Sterling from the ownership group before more public angst towards team owners could mature. Silver knows he has some solid ground to stand on as a long term executive in the NBA.

Why is this important now in 2014?

Owners did not acquire the finances to become owners overnight. They have made calculated decisions with the long term in mind. The next two seasons will give you insight into what direction the professional game of basketball might go. Michelle Roberts support will grow from the players and fans if the league is not careful to manage this correctly. Nobody likes lockouts...this one could shake up a lot.

Information reported by ESPN was used in this article

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