NBA Preseason Power Rankings are about as reliable as Wikipedia “facts.”
Read them over with a grain of salt because with only rosters, preseason stats and predictions to work with, NBA analysts are bound to make mistakes.
Harmless as they may be, three errors need to be corrected.
Lofty predictions for the Atlanta Hawks, an underestimation of the Orlando Magic and low expectations for the Cleveland Cavaliers are three examples of how the current NBA Power Rankings are far from perfect.
Here is a re-analysis of those three teams:
The Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite two surprising first round picks over the last two years, the Cavaliers shouldn’t surprise anyone when they make their playoff debut next spring.Bill Simmons literally squealed when they took Anthony Bennett as the first overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. However, based on Bennett’s preseason, the Cavaliers made a calculated risk with a
potentially big payoff. In fact, they did the same thing last year with Dion Waiters.
High risk, high reward.
Regardless, a measly 18th ranking is a poor assessment of the talent they’ve accrued. Kyrie Irving is a top-ten player in the NBA on the verge of mega-star status. A healthy Irving might be enough to get them to the postseason alone.
The Cavs also have a healthy double-double machine (Anderson Varejao), a steadily-improving wingman (Dion Waiters), an explosive on-ball defender (Alonzo Gee) and an overlooked utility forward (Tristan Thompson) in the mix. Throw new additions Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark, Andrew Bynum and Russian phenom Sergey Karasev into the rotation, and that’s a deep, versatile team. Not to mention defensive specialist CJ Miles is coming off the bench.
Karasev might be the Cavaliers’ most intriguing rookie this season based on his upside and reputation.
New head coach Mike Brown’s bread-and-butter is defense, but the proverbial injury bug will determine their success. Varejao was having a career-best season in 2012-13 before developing a blood clot that ended his year early. Bynum hasn’t suited up in over a year. Also, Irving has a reputation for being “injury-prone.”
Jesse Dorsey from Bleacher Report speculates that it’s Irving’s “style of play that causes him to be in harm’s way.” While no one should try and curb the way he plays, his sustainability is critical to the Cavaliers’ success. Jarrett Jack is a formidable back-up point guard who’s proven throughout his career to be an effective starter or role player, and his addition will give Irving plenty of opportunities for rest.
#18 is a steep ranking especially when Denver, a star-less squad with a brand new coach is being listed at #13. Don’t bet on the Nuggets finishing better than the Cavs.
In seven seasons as an NBA head coach, Mike Brown recorded one losing season.
That trend won’t change this year and 45 wins for Cleveland shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The Orlando Magic
Despite a bleak 28th ranking, the Orlando Magic have plenty to be optimistic about.They’re returning four out of their five top scorers from last season and they made a draft day splash in selecting Victor Oladipo.
Oladipo can be a lockdown defender immediately and he’s got the quickness to light up the scoreboard and create space.
Twelve players with fewer than three seasons of NBA experience suggests bumpy road ahead for the Magic, but second year coach Jacque Vaughn can’t complain about a lack of talent. With Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Glen Davis, Tobias Harris and Jameer Nelson, the Magic have the offensive weapons to rebuild.
Arron Afflalo is also attracting a lot of trade interest.
Regardless, Orlando’s biggest problem will be team defense.
If the Magic create more havoc on the perimeter, and Vucevic and newcomer Jason Maxiell shore up the paint, they have an opportunity to turn some heads.
Expecting squads like the Charlotte Bobcats (#25) and the Utah Jazz (#26) to win more games than the Magic is unrealistic. The Jazz, for example, are working with an injured rookie point guard (Trey Burke), two underachieving big men (Enes Kanter/Derrick Favors), and an inconsistent shooting guard (Alec Burks).
Fortunately for the Magic, they have a consistent shooting presence with Afflalo and a few over-achieving big men in Vucevic, Davis and Harris. Also, Oladipo is a front runner for ROY, not Burke.
Unfortunately for the Magic, the Eastern Conference is loaded with great teams this season, so a spot in the playoffs seems a little far-fetched. However, if they can avoid the injuries and the “rookie wall,” they might win enough games to make the playoff race interesting next spring.
“Orlando will be a competitive team with plenty to be optimistic about,” Dave Zarum at Sportsnet.ca says. “This club just doesn’t have the experience, or the personnel, to close out many games.”
If they can close out games, they’ll be playoff bound.
The Atlanta Hawks
Be warned, the Hawks are not as good as a #14 ranking. Picking up Paul Millsap and Elton Brand won’t be enough to propel them out of mediocrity. Elton Brand’s production has decreased during the last three seasons, and he appears to be on his last legs.Millsap will be efficient, but asking him to replace Josh Smith isn’t fair. He’s not nearly as much of a defensive asset as Smith, who was just a better athlete overall for the hawks.
Rookies Lucas Nogueira and Dennis Schroeder were considered draft day steals, but Nogueria won’t suit up for Atlanta this season and Schroeder will be fighting for minutes behind Jeff Teague. Who knows what he’ll contribute.
Believe it or not, this team eerily resembles the 24th ranked Sacramento Kings:
Both have all-star caliber centers (DeMarcus Cousins and Al Horford).
Both have at least eight players with fewer than three seasons of NBA experience.
Both feature quality, up-and-coming point guards (Greivis Vasquez and Jeff Teague).
Both signed forwards in the offseason (Carl Landry and Paul Millsap).
Both have versatile wingmen (Millsap and Salmons).
Both have brand new head coaches (Michael Malone and Mike Budenholzer).
Other than the Kings’ total makeover this offseason, the simplest explanation for the ranking discrepancy boils down to last year’s final defensive stats. Last season, the Hawks finished 13th in points allowed per game whereas the Kings finished dead last. The interesting thing is that Atlanta recorded those defensive numbers while Josh Smith was still a Hawk.
Those numbers won’t hold.
Smith was ranked the top perimeter defender in the league last season based on Bradford Doolittle’s Basketball Prospectus.
How do the Hawks make up for that loss?
Unless new head coach Mike Budenholzer has some tricks up his sleeve, this team won’t finish anywhere near 14th in the NBA. Too many questions surround their upcoming season: What are they going to do with eight different guards? How will they incorporate nine different forwards into the mix? Who’s going to guard the opponent’s best player? Can their bench produce at a consistent rate?
Plus, Al Horford, is still dealing with lingering hamstring problems.
Can they win close games without their best player?
The Hawks have “bust” written all over them.
No comments:
Post a Comment