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| Aaron Rodgers ranks 2nd on NFL Fantasy QB Rankings. Photo credit NFL |
Quarterback is the most prolific position in fantasy football, although likely not the most important. Even so, having a mediocre quarterback can ruin many fantasy football seasons, especially if he's drafted too early.
With quarterbacks being drafted higher than ever, it's critical that fantasy football owners understand how to rank their quarterbacks and what produces the best results.
After spending hours constructing expected point values for the top quarterbacks in the league, it's easier to rely on expert opinions than it is to construct the tables yourself.
The best fantasy owners will do the legwork themselves, but even they should read the reasoning behind the point projections and rankings for the top signal-callers in the league below.
1. Drew Brees
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| Drew Brees |
It’s a virtual tie for the top spot in fantasy football, but the tiebreaker goes to Drew Brees, who—while
coming off a down year—is reliably productive for fantasy purposes.
With the return of his coaching staff, we should see Brees in an offense designed to take advantage of his unerring accuracy and pass regardless of situation. If he can top a completion percentage of 67 percent, which he has been able to do three of the last four years, he should generate over 5000 yards once more.
Because the team relies on him to throw touchdowns instead of a running back corps that became weaker this offseason, also expect his TD numbers to stay around 40.
The bottom line is whether you believe Brees can get 5000 yards once more. If he can, then he’s worth the top spot.
2. Aaron Rodgers
Perhaps 1B instead of #2 when it comes to fantasy football, Rodgers is perhaps one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the lead. But that’s irrelevant when it comes to fantasy, where volume rules. With two promising running backs coming out of the draft, there’s a chance his attempts could drop.
That said, throwing just shy of 530 times looks to be a smart projection. Rodgers shouldn’t see as many attempts as last year (552) because they should not be playing from behind or in close games as often. Instead, his 2010 and 2011 attempts (prorated to 507 and 535 in a full season) are better guides.
He too should have a completion rate around 67 percent, and he has been fairly consistent in throwing passes for about 12.5 yards per completion throughout his career. That means he’ll throw for fewer yards and touchdowns than Brees, but should have a productive rushing line (around 270 yards) to nearly make up for it.
3. Tom Brady
His yardage totals have varied widely from year to year (as recently as 2010, he only threw for 3900 yards, but he passed 5235 yards just a year later). Once you smooth out his performances, with a heavy bias for recent years, Brady should see just about a 65.5 percent completion rate and a little over 12 yards a completion.
That should mean around 4600 passing yards and over 35 touchdowns. With some of his patented goal-line sneaks, he’ll boost his value above players like Peyton Manning.
4. Peyton Manning
An unsurprising place for Peyton Manning, he largely falls in the fourth spot because he won’t vulture any goal line TDs.
There’s room for optimism and a good argument that he should be ranked higher given that he will be playing with the best receiving corps of his life, including 2006, where Marvin Harrison peaked and Reggie Wayne came into his own.
The combination of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Joel Dreessen , Jacob Tamme and Andre Caldwell should produce some lethal yards.
Manning put up a completion rate of nearly 69 percent in 2012, but expect that to come down to 67 or so. With about 12 yards per pass, he’ll see over 4700 yards.
5. Matt Ryan
By now, Matt Ryan has an almost tired reputation for efficiency. His reputation grew in 2012 with an
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| Matt Ryan |
But Ryan should be returning to 2009-2011 numbers, and therefore should be viewed as a QB more likely to complete 63-65 percent of his passes rather than 68. At 11.5 yards per completion, that will give him 4400 yards on 590 or so attempts.
Given that the Falcons often seem to find themselves ahead, it makes sense to limit his total attempts, particularly with the acquisition of Steven Jackson. Without a strong running background, Ryan will be a tier below Brees/Rodgers/Brady/Manning but his relative health gives him a boost over more explosive quarterbacks.
6. Colin Kaepernick
Colin Kapernick is a bit of an enigma, but he’s built to last a bit better than Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick.
But without a real downfield threat, he managed to string together 8.3 yards per attempt and an astonishingly low 1.4% interception rate.
He should come back down to earth in a full season, as neither statistic is stable at 218 attempts, but nobody should be surprised if he ends up as the top quarterback or the worst starter.
7. Robert Griffin III
If you think that Robert Griffin III is going to start all 16 games next year (or at least all of the games during your fantasy season), then by all means pick him early. He scored more than any other quarterback in games he played uninjured, topping out past 20.5 points a game.
But Adrian Peterson’s recovery shouldn’t be a guide for what Griffin will do, and there may even be a good chance that his running opportunities will be limited by Shanahan as a result of the injury.
As it stands, he should see 390 attempts in 14 games, and 560 rushing yards. On those attempts, 256 of those passes should be completed for 3050 yards, assuming that defensive coordinators will do a slightly better job stopping the pass. That makes him a mid-level starter.
In a full season, those projections would rise to 446 attempts, 640 rushing yards and 3486 passing yards. That would make him the 5th-best option, in front of Matt Ryan
8. Tony Romo
The classic mid-round steal, Tony Romo finds himself stymied as a fantasy producer because of the preponderance of rookie passers producing at a high level. The difference between the top and the middle for fantasy quarterbacks may be far different this year than most years, and Romo may be an even smarter pick because of it—picked as the 12th QB on average, smart fantasy players will get real value with him.
The Cowboys are a pass-friendly team under Jason Garrett and somewhere around 600 attempts (he had 648 last year, but 522 the year before), although fantasy owners should expect that fewer attempts is more likely than a greater number of attempts.
Romo has had a remarkably consistent career, throwing at just below 7.9 yards per attempt throughout his career. Expect him to continue that, especially with Dez Bryant maturing. That means 4740 yards passing and 32 touchdowns, placing him once again as a player with a better fantasy reputation than actual game accolades.
9. Cam Newton
A better passer and quarterback than he’s given credit for, Newton consistently has the opportunity to create yards, although he saw his touchdown total on the ground drop with the addition of true power backs to the stacked Carolina backfield.
Nevertheless, Cam’s build and potent arm give him a better chance than many “traditional” running quarterbacks have of maintaining health while still making sure to feature the threat of the run as an important part of the offense.
Newton has run about 130 times in both years and should be expected to produce 700 yards on the ground in this position. As a passer, the Panthers should see over 500 pass attempts, possibly more if they continue to play from behind.
Should he produce his career number of 7.9 yards per attempt, that will give him nearly 4000 yards through the air. Don’t expect his touchdown totals to climb to Brady-like numbers however, as Tolbert and other running backs will punch it in short. 20 touchdowns in the air and a few more on the ground make him a valuable asset at quarterback.
10. Matthew Stafford
Matt Stafford will always show up on the top of lists because he consistently produces 5000 yard seasons, but unless he can tone down the interceptions and ramp up the touchdowns, it’s overblown.
The addition of Reggie Bush in the backfield will give him another passing option, but also signals a small, but growing commitment to the run game. While he won’t pound it in from the goal line, he could further take some touchdowns away from a passing offense that should be more potent than it is.
If the Lions reduce their average yards per catch because of Reggie Bush and move upwards in the “close win” column, they should be passing the ball fewer times for somewhat less yardage. That still means perhaps 650 attempts (not the record-breaking 727) but for 410 completions and around 4700 yards. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, he should throw between his 2011 touchdown total (40) and his 2012 (20).
That would give him fewer points than Cam Newton, and would be a disappointing, but not altogether surprising result for the gaudy passer.
11. Russell Wilson
Beginning the year as the tentative winner of a camp battle to ending the year as the quarterback of next year’s Super Bowl favorites is quite the change. Statistically, Wilson mirrored that transition, steadily improving as a quarterback over time.
The acquisition of Percy Harvin means big things for Wilson’s game, and it looks like Seattle will field a solid corps of receivers in 2013.
The big question for Wilson is how many pass attempts he’ll throw. With only 393 last year, there are reasons to worry. He’s unlikely to benefit from a 58-0 shutout (13 attempts against the Cardinals) and the same could be said for the drubbing of the New York Jets (19 attempts), but the point remains—Seattle is a run-first team, one of only two teams with more rushing attempts than passing attempts.
Harvin, who will likely feature as a runner as well as a receiver, complicates things.
More likely than not, the pass attempt total will regress upward, and Wilson should see something like 420 attempts, which should translate into about 3300 yards. Implementing designed runs for Wilson will also give him almost 90 carries, and he should see 500 yards from that.
Altogether, that will round him out as a mid-range starter despite likely having more talent at the position than that.
12. Andrew Luck
If Romo is a better fantasy player than he is a skilled passer, Andrew Luck is the opposite. Despite playing with excellent athleticism and in a downfield passing scheme, Luck placed as the 10th overall quarterback in standard scoring leagues.
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| Andrew Luck |
Despite a pass-heavy offense, the vertical nature of the offense limited Luck’s completion percentage. He should be passing once more with alacrity, and might even figure to be in many close games once more (increasing his fantasy value), but with a vanilla 7.0 yards per attempt last year, he didn’t strike home for excited fantasy owners.
He should increase his yards per pass attempt, but decrease his pass attempts (with 627 last year), which would give him 4150 yards of passing and around 25 touchdowns. Those numbers would make him a clear starter over 13-17, but still only the 12th-best QB in the league.
13. Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler should be helped by a pass guru in Marc Trestman and will likely overperform expectations as a quarterback. A better line, stronger passing game and solid scheme will guarantee solid points in a backup quarterback.
14. Eli Manning
Eli Manning is consistently productive and passes quite a bit, but is an interception liability without putting up as many touchdowns as you’d expect. Better in the fourth quarter of real games than in the final stretches of fantasy leagues.
15. Philip Rivers
Philip Rivers has fallen far in both worlds of football, and has proven in two consecutive years that he may no longer be reliable. With a rejuvenated passing game in Keenan Allen and a healthy Ryan Mathews, he should perform well, but not enough to start.
16. Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton has the weapons to do well, but only seems to want to pass to A.J. Green. While that speaks well for Green’s numbers, that doesn’t mean Dalton can avoid interceptions or produce over 4000 yards.
17. Carson Palmer
A perfect fit for Bruce Arians, Palmer has more upside than many people think, and fewer interceptions to boot. He should feel comfortable throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, but a shaky line, and an old arm mean that he can be a good backup but not a solidly consistent starter.
18. Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill will throw for over 4000 yards and will probably have fewer than 10 interceptions, but might not get as many touchdowns as other fantasy mavens. A low-risk, high-upside pick, Tannehill can stream in against unproductive defenses on a bye week.
19. Joe Flacco
A Super Bowl victory behind him, Joe Flacco now has to figure out how to produce big numbers now that the new offensive coordinator is looking to find ways to get the running backs involved and without playoff hero Anquan Boldin. Despite a postseason push, he’s never been a starter in the regular season.
20. Josh Freeman
Freeman might not throw the ball as much as he’d like with the rise of Doug Martin, but the Bucs still like to sling it. He’s a 4000 yard passer given that he won’t be up against too many strong pass defenses, but he’s a risk for throwing 20 or so interceptions.
21. Sam Bradford
Without his best receiver, Bradford may do worse than last year, where he ranked 16th overall. Tavon Austin should help immensely, but he’s also a runner who could take pass attempts away from a volume offense. Bradford isn’t as much of an interception risk as most backups, but neither has he consistently produced touchdowns.
22. Michael Vick
Without even being guaranteed a starting job in Philadelphia, Michael Vick is in an odd completion with Nick Foles and Matt Barkley for the right to throw. He’s still an able runner with a strong arm, but he’s a turnover risk that may not even play. Pick Vick with caution.
23. Alex Smith
Alex Smith should thrive in a West Coast Offense, but Andy Reid likes to throw it further downfield than most WCO disciples. He can take care of the ball, but Jamaal Charles may well relieve pressure on a much-maligned quarterback who won’t feature.
24. Ben Roethlisberger
If he can be healthy for the full year, Roethlisberger is a low-level starter or premier backup. But with injury concerns dogging him throughout his career, he’ll be limited to a 3600-yard passing season and 100 yards of rushing. 25 touchdowns is likely his ceiling, and people expecting to start Big Ben could be disappointed.
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