Drafting first in any fantasy redraft is usually simple. For some time, the easy pick was LaDanian Tomlinson. After that, it was Adrian Peterson. Last year, Peterson’s injury scared drafters off and he was picked 18th in average fantasy drafts., but this year he’s being picked first in every draft once again.
There’s no mystery that Adrian Peterson will be (and should be) the first player off the board. But that’s no help the owners in second and third, who have much weightier choices to make.
Any number of analysts will provide their data-based conclusion about who to draft. The consensus seems to be that drafting a running back in the first round is a good way to go. In that case, Pro Football Focus offers the use of “Agility Scores” to predict running back performance. Rotowire found that age and speed matter, too.
Perhaps most importantly, touchdown figures are impossible to predict. It’s better to treat touchdowns as a function of opportunity and usage than it is a repeatable skill from any particular running back. For example, generally treating 300-carry backs the same in terms of touchdown likelihood makes sense, but it also makes sense to make exceptions—Matt Forte is not used in goal line situations, where Adrian Peterson is.
A quick glance at ADP boards across the country tells you that Arian Foster is the second running back going in most draft circles (in standard scoring leagues). That makes sense—he and Doug Martin tied for having the second-most points in standard scoring formats in 2012, and Houston still has a run-first offense.
But as the inestimable Matt Waldman points out, there’s much more to fantasy football than picking last year’s leaders.
Between 2007 and 2012, a running back in the top three turned out to be one of the top three running backs the next year only 22 percent of the time. A running back in the top nine only repeated his
performance as a top nine running back 31 percent of the time.
This is further brought home by the fact that the likelihood of a running back repeating consecutive seasons as a “top twelve” running back is about 50 percent for a player like Arian Foster, who has had three consecutive seasons as a top-tier running back.
Foster is seen as the “safe” number two pick, but his carries were built on a team that had nearly 52 percent of its snaps taken while having the lead. If you think Houston can sustain that, it makes sense to pick him; discussion over.
That relies on Houston maintaining their reputation as a good team. The ESPN Insider staff doesn’t think that’s likely, however, and the Pythagorean outcomes model agrees. Weighted DVOA furthers that claim with some emphasis, arguing that they were actually a bottom-half team, talent-wise.
At the end of the season, Houston ranked 15th in some predictive measures and 9th in others. Running backs get more touches when ahead, and are better fantasy commodities when they are on relatively good teams (or at least teams that will have a lead).
Taking a risk on a player who has the environment to do well in a fantasy context, might be better. You’re already taking risks you don’t know about, so it might be best to manage them. As Malcolm Gladwell tells us:
“The entrepreneur takes risks but does not see himself as a risk-taker, because he operates under the useful delusion that what he’s attempting is not risky.”
This is particularly true given that Foster is not just due to wear down soon, but is one of many weapons on a potent Texans offense that includes Andre Johnson, Ben Tate and the newly drafted (and perhaps extremely NFL-ready) DeAndre Hopkins, it might not be wise to choose Foster second overall.
Arian Foster had a career-high 351 carries and added 40 receptions to that, touching the ball an incredible 391 times. The last time Arian Foster had over 390 carries, he followed the season with only 331 touches.
In fact, every single time a player had more than 390 touches in the past six seasons, they’ve followed it up with a season of 360 touches or fewer. Projecting Arian Foster to have as many carries and receptions as he did the season before would be an exercise in folly.
Foster’s value comes from his volume; with over 20 attempts a game, he can consistently provide 80-yard, 1-touchdown games to his owner, but any decrease in his attempts kills what he can provide, he’s been a career 4.5 yard per carry back, with the average steadily decreasing as he continues his career.
Foster should have another year of near 4.2 yards per carry, and at that rate could end up as the number two back in the league. But he needs to sustain his high workload, which is never a promise.
Instead, picking a player who is set to increase his workload rather than decrease it might be worth more in the second round.
C.J. Spiller may have finally found the right situation in Buffalo, as has Jamaal Charles. Given that Andy Reid has never allowed a running back to have more than 278 carries, it might not be wise to bet on Charles with the second overall pick.
New Bills offensive coordinator comes from a Syracuse offense that ran the ball twice as much as they passed it. Although this is not a reasonable expectation at the NFL level, it’s clear that Hackett loves to run the ball, even when behind. Given that Marrone sees Spiller as a three-down back, Spiller is poised to put up great numbers in an offense that loves him.
The no-huddle offense that the Bills are installing will also increase the total number of possessions in a game, and therefore the total number of offensive opportunities Spiller will have to run the ball. More plays leads to more carries.
An elusive running back who is consistently ranked as one of the most elusive running backs in football, regardless of the year or situation, Spiller has a big opportunity to break out. With a career yards per carry at 5.4, even regression would see him as a top-tier running back.
Despite losing Andy Levitre on the offensive line, Buffalo should still field a run-friendly offensive line—not only was Levitre not much of a run blocker, but replacement Sam Young could be better at it given his college background and huge frame.
Should Spiller repeat his jaw-dropping 6.0 yards a carry, he’ll probably be the top fantasy running back in the country, especially because he should catch anywhere between 40-50 catches for the season. More than likely, he’ll drop down to his career average, neat 5.4, and produce over 1500 yards.
The no-huddle aspect of the offense, and the confidence that Marrone places in Spiller, might also mean he won’t be taken out of goal-line duties, making it possible that he scores upwards of 10 touchdowns as well.
Should he merely produce at his career average and seven touchdowns, there’s no question he would be the second-best fantasy running back in football.
With an upside to repeat his eye-popping yards per carry average, Spiller is definitely worth the risk.
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