NFL: IDP Sleeper Nigel Bradham

by Arif Hasan

Nigel Bradham of Buffalo Bills. Photo credit NFL 

When selecting a player in IDP, fans often forget that the quality of the player matters a lot less than their box score. In an ideal fantasy league, that’s not the case, but there isn’t an ideal fantasy league. One way to get the jump on your friends in these leagues is to identify players who have the system rigged in their favor.
A study by Pro Football Focus found that six teams are much more likely to award a pass defensed on a particular play when at home (Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, New York (Jets), Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle), and of those six teams, Buffalo also awards more solo tackles and assisted tackles.
Baltimore, Philadelphia and San Francisco are also more likely to award a solo tackle instead of an assist.
Buffalo also has an opportunity to play against fantasy friendly teams like the Patriots, the Jets and the Browns.


Given all that, the next surprising player that could solidify an IDP roster could very easily come from Buffalo. In the new hybrid 3-4 defense, linebackers will be at a particular premium, and the Bills will make sure that their primary playmakers will be on the field in position to make the play as often as possible.
With Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard gone, that means it’s time for Nigel Bradham to step up.
Bradham is a largely unknown outside linebacker drafted in the fourth round of the linebacker-rich 2012 draft (which included Luke Kuechly, Melvin Ingram, Dont’a Hightower, Bobby Wagner, Mychal Kendricks and Courtney Upshaw) who will be asked to take on all the responsibilities of a 3-4 inside linebacker and a 4-3 outside linebacker.

As the strongside linebacker, Bradham only saw 41.4 percent of snaps. This year, he’s expected to play every down for the Buffalo Bills and move to the weakside, where it’s easier to rack up tackles.
That’s impressive, considering the fact that Bradham racked up 59 percent of the tackles you would expect from an average starting outside linebacker in 2012, despite only playing in 41.4 percent of snaps. In fact, Pro Football Focus found that he grabbed a tackle on 14.2 percent of his plays, well above the NFL average of eight percent for a player at his position.
4-3 OLBs and 3-4 ILBs don’t have too many differences in tackle frequency, although 3-4 ILBs tend to tackle a little more often (nine percent), which means that he should be in position to make a tackle even more often than before. Even assuming natural regression from his small sample size, he should expect to have over 100 tackles (if he plays 1,000 snaps and has a tackle frequency at a modest ten percent), well within the top ten every year.

More interestingly, his increased likelihood of rushing the passer adds exceptional value to his stock without subtracting too much from his tackle total. New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine previously coordinated the Jets defense and ran an aggressive scheme.

Between 2009 and 2012, Pettine sent inside linebackers on pass-rushing snaps on 29 percent of passing downs, or 17 percent of all downs. Should he maintain the same aggression, expect Bradham—an accomplished pass rusher at Florida State—to produce between three and five sacks for the year, giving Bradham added value.

While this might detract from his tackle total (170 of his passing snaps would not be eligible for tackles), it shouldn’t impact things too much. If Bradham produces tackles at a 12 percent rate in 2012—a regression with a bonus for his inside linebacker snaps—and plays 1000 snaps, he should still end up with over 100 tackles.

In 2012, only one linebacker recorded over 100 tackles and three sacks: Daryl Washington. In 2011, two linebackers accomplished that goal and none did so in 2010.

The numbers look even better when attempting to factor in time on the field. The Bills are looking to install a quick-strike, no-huddle offense designed to get off the field quickly. Sometimes they will be successful, and other times, their rookie quarterback will take them off the field even faster.

In 2012, the teams that accrued the most individual tackles, when accounting for “home-brewed” effects, were either no-huddle offenses (like the Baltimore Ravens) or featured a poor and inexperienced quarterback (like the Jacksonville Jaguars).

In fact, over the last five years, the correlation between the rank of total team tackles and the rank of time of possession is 0.9997. This means that tackles and time of possession are directly related. The team that held on to the ball on offense the shortest amount of time invariably racked up more tackles, with rare exception. Knowing that the Bills will do the same either by design or accident should certainly inject confidence into their linebackers. And between Kiko Alonso (a rookie) and Nigel Bradham (a proven vet), IDP players should feel comfortable grabbing Bradham.

While the projections above are almost certainly rosy, waiting in the draft for someone like Bradham will allow you to stock up on players that are scarce like high-scoring corners or defensive ends. In two linebacker leagues, IDP players should target Bradham late, after most people have picked both of their linebackers. In three or more linebacker leagues, Bradham should be an early third linebacker pick who has the ceiling of an LB1 and will likely produce solid LB2 numbers. Tackle-friendly leagues in particular should pay close attention.